Previsiones de la OECD sobre la Economía Mundial

La OECD hizo público sus reportes y análisis sobre la crisis actual y las previsiones sobre el crecimiento muncdial y de los países miembros de este bloque.

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El reporte completo puede accesarse acá. OECD Economic Outlook: Interim Report

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En el editorial escrito por el economista en jefe de la organización, Klaus Schimdt-Hebbel destaca lo siguiente:

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Preveen una contracción en la actividad mudial casi de 3%

Bearing these uncertainties in mind, we anticipate that the ongoing contraction in economic activity will worsen this year, before a policy-induced recovery gradually builds momentum through 2010. In the United States, Japan, the euro area, as well as for the OECD economy at large, output will drop by between 4 and 7% this year and broadly stagnate next year. The major non-OECD economies are not spared from an abrupt slowdown in growth or an outright recession. World real GDP growth is projected to fall by 2¾ per cent this year and to recover by 1¼ per cent in 2010

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enfatizan la transmisión de los problemas financieros de los países desarrollados a los en desarrollo

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This forecast is conditional on the assumption that the stress in financial markets dissipates towards the end of 2009, and carries risks that remain firmly tilted to the downside. The most important risk is that the weakening real economy will further undermine the health of financial institutions, which in turn forces them to curtail lending beyond what is anticipated

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Enfatizan la necesidad de mayores estímulos fiscales dada las limitaciones en la política monetaria

Additional macroeconomic stimulus is also critical to cushion the fall in aggregate demand. Conventional monetary policy should be used fully by keeping or bringing policy rates near zero and committing to keep them at that level for some time to come.