domingo, 19 de abril de 2009

Debate Sobre Inflación en Estados Unidos

Ayer puse en un post la columna de Mankiw sobre su sugerencia de generar inflación en las condiciones actuales. Krugman le responde hoy en estos términos

But here’s why it won’t work now, at least not yet: we’re talking about making a credible commitment to fairly high inflation over the medium term, yet you still have distinguished central bankers appalled at the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target.

Krugman hace referencia a que en uno de sus últimos comunicados, la FED sugirió su adhesión a Inflation targeting con un objetivo del 2%, mismo que comente en este post el 18 de febrero y en donde además hacía este comentario adicional por curiosidad

In his book, A Term at The FED, Chapter 2, Larry Meyer (who by the way was my macro professor at Wash U during my PhD studies) wrote about a discussion between Janet Yellen and Greenspan during his first FOMC meeting (July 2 and 3, 1996), about what level of inflation should the FOMC shoot for, and why?.Greenspan was arguing in favor of a zero target, if inflation is properly measured while Yellen preferred 2%, imprecisely measured. The Chairman later summarized the discussion: “We have now all agreed on 2 percent”.“The following morning, the Chairman reminded us of “the highly confidential nature of what we talk about at an FOMC meeting”. He looked at us around the table and said quietly, “The discussion we had yesterday was exceptionally interesting and important. I will tell you that if the 2 percent inflation figure gets out of this room, it is going to create more problems for us than I think any of you might anticipate” (page 43)
En todo caso, la posición de Mankiw coincide con una expresada por Rogoff hace varias semanas, pero contrasta en cierta forma con la creciente preocupación por inflación futura como consecuencia de las políticas fiscal y monetaria actual. Conforme se estabilicen los mercados financieros y pase ese tema a segundo plano, seguramente este tema de la inflación futura irá en aumento.

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