Robert Shiller, profesor de Yale, es uno de los economistas que más respeto cuando se trata de finanzas. En particular hay que revisar sus escritos sobre las burbujas, la exhuberancia irracional y la crisis reciente, por lo que es una referncia obligada en mi libro. Para ser sincero, mis opiniones y comentarios sobre la reciente volatilidad en los mercados que he pulbicado están fuertemente influenciados por Shiller. Ahora les comparto esta nota que publicó en el NYT en donde explica de una manera clara esta volatilidad, pero sobre todo en donde deja claro lo complicado de interpretar estos fenómenos. Por cierto, hace referencia a los planteamiento de Keynes como se puede ver en estos párrafos...
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...It’s tempting to think that the market has been responding rationally to these developments. But that isn’t an adequate answer. Why did investors react so strongly to the rating change, which, after all, was merely the opinion of a few analysts on a committee? And why did the market swing so much day to day, even when there was no significant news?
John Maynard Keynes supplied the answer in 1936, in “The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money,” by comparing the stock market to a beauty contest. He described a newspaper contest in which 100 photographs of faces were displayed. Readers were asked to choose the six prettiest. The winner would be the reader whose list of six came closest to the most popular of the combined lists of all readers
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...It’s tempting to think that the market has been responding rationally to these developments. But that isn’t an adequate answer. Why did investors react so strongly to the rating change, which, after all, was merely the opinion of a few analysts on a committee? And why did the market swing so much day to day, even when there was no significant news?
John Maynard Keynes supplied the answer in 1936, in “The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money,” by comparing the stock market to a beauty contest. He described a newspaper contest in which 100 photographs of faces were displayed. Readers were asked to choose the six prettiest. The winner would be the reader whose list of six came closest to the most popular of the combined lists of all readers
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