¿Tiene la Crisis Europea Verdaderamente un Origen en Política Fiscal Irresponsable?

En el blog The Street Light se presenta este interesante post en donde discute con información y datos dos hipótesis: la primera es que la crisis europea tiene su origen en una política fiscal irresponsable de los países afectados y, la segunda, qye tiene más origen externo producto de la misma dinámica de la Unión Monetaria y que provocó importantes flujos de capital de los países fuertes a los de la periferia, deteriorando sus cuentas corrientes, lo cual terminó con un clásico "sudden stop" en 2008.

What Really Caused the Eurozone Crisis?

Parte de la Conclusión

So... What Really Caused the Crisis?

Putting it all together, it seems that the EZ crisis is more consistent with the systemic causes view than the local causes view. In other words, while they didn’t necessarily make the right decision every time, the peripheral EZ countries were up against powerful exogenous forces - capital flow bonanzas and sudden stops - that tended to push them toward financial crisis. They were playing against a stacked deck.

It’s useful to reevaluate the macroeconomic history of peripheral Europe in light of this interpretation. Rather than large current account deficits being the result of fiscal mismanagement or excessive consumption, the current account deficits were the necessary and unavoidable counterpart to the surge in capital flows from the EZ core. Rather than above-average inflation rates and deteriorating competitiveness being signs of labor market inefficiencies or lax fiscal policies in the peripheral countries, appreciating real exchange rates were inevitable as the mechanism by which those current account deficits were effected.