martes, 13 de marzo de 2012

¿Regresa la Represión Financiera?

Este es un tema que desde hace años sólo se veía como una referencia "histórica" en los cursos de moneda y banca. Al menos en los míos. En México, esta etapa se superó con la liberalización financiera a principios de la década de los noventa. Pero la crisis parece que ha regresado el tema a la vida diaria. Al menos esto sugiere Carmen Reinhart en esta magnífica en Bloomberg

Financial Repression Has Come Back to Stay: Carmen M. Reinhart
"...To summarize, central banks on both sides of the Atlantic (and the Pacific, for that matter) have become even bigger players in purchases of government debt, possibly for the indefinite future. Meanwhile, fear of currency appreciation continues to drive central banks in many emerging markets to purchase U.S. (and, increasingly, European) government bonds on a large scale. That means markets for government bonds are increasingly populated by nonmarket players, calling into question the information content of bond prices relative to their underlying risk profile -- a common feature of financially repressed systems.

-- Modern Financial Repression, 2008-2012: Advanced economies face the common policy challenge of finding prospective buyers for their abundance of government debt. Huge purchases of such debt by central banks around the world have played a clear role in keeping nominal and real interest rates low. In addition, the Basel III rules provide for the preferential treatment of government debt in bank balance sheets. "