Evaluación del Paquete del Senado por el CBO

En una nota que puede accesarse acá, el CBO señala sus estimaciones de impacto del paquete del Senado tanto en producción como en empleo

.

Taking all of the short- and long-run effects into account, CBO estimates that the
legislation implies an increase in GDP relative to the agency’s baseline forecast of
between 1.4 percent and 3.8 percent by the fourth quarter of 2009, between 1.1 percent
and 3.3 percent by the fourth quarter of 2010, between 0.4 percent and 1.3 percent by
the fourth quarter of 2011, and declining amounts in later years (see Table 1). Beyond
2014, the legislation is estimated to reduce GDP by between zero and 0.2 percent. This
long-run effect is slightly smaller than CBO estimated in its preliminary analysis of the
Senate stimulus legislation last week due to refinements in our methodology.
Correspondingly, the legislation would increase employment by 0.8 million to 2.3
million by the fourth quarter of 2009, by 1.2 million to 3.6 million by the fourth quarter
of 2010, by 0.6 million to 1.9 million by the fourth quarter of 2011, and by declining
numbers in later years. The effect on employment is never estimated to be negative,
despite lower GDP in later years, because CBO expects that the U.S. labor market will
be at nearly full employment in the long run. The reduction in GDP is therefore
estimated to be reflected in lower wages rather than lower employment, as workers will
be less productive because the capital stock is smalle