viernes, 6 de febrero de 2009

Recesión en el Mundo Avanza

Todos sabíamos que el primer trimestre de este año sería probablemente el peor en términos de la actividad económica y así se reflejaba en las proyecciones mundiales, por lo que ahora resulta sorprendente que algunas autoridades se sorprendan!! Máxime si consideramos que los efectos importantes de la mayoría de los paquetes de estínulos en el mundo llevarán tiempo en presentarse por distintas razones (aunque ninguna nueva o no predecible).
Lo que tenemos ahora en la prensa es precisamente la narración de esta fuerte caída en actividad económica en todo el mundo.
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Por ejemplo, Eurointelligence se refiere a los últimos datos para Alemania y Japón de la siguiente forma
These are numbers nobody has seen before. German industrial orders have fallen by 27% yoy in December, by 6.9% during the month. German industry, like Japan’s industry, is in virtual free-fall. Investment goods, the heart of German manufacturing industry, were down almost 30% yoy
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En el caso de España, "A Fistul of Euros" (un Blog) señala
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Spanish industrial production fell by a record 20 percent and bankruptcy proceedings almost quadrupled as the credit squeeze pushed the country’s debt-laden economy toward its worst recession in half a century. The 19.6 percent annual decline in production at factories, refineries and mines in December followed a revised contraction of 15.3 percent in November, adjusting for the number of days worked, the Madrid-based National Statistics Institute said today
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Y para dar ejemplos de otros países, veamos que pasa con Ucrania y Hungría.....
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The Second Great Depression seems to have now spread from Ukraine, and arrived in Hungary.
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Otro dato sobre la OECD sobre las peores cifras en las últimas décadas que muestra un Blog Chleno de Marco A. Moreno.
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En este entorno es dificil no ser pesimistas, a pesar de que era esperado... lo que no queda claro aún es si efectivamente las acciones que se están tomando son suficientes y veremos el inico del cambio en la segunda parte del año.....

3 comentarios:

Anónimo dijo...

Saludos....Yo me enfocaria en las exportaciones de China, y su impacto sobre EEUU. Entre menos exporta China, menos dolares que recaba el Banco Central de China, menos apoyo a Treasury de 10 anos. Hoy, el Treasury sube hasta 2.97. Hay gente que dice que esto indica que hay menos temor en el mercado, y por salen del "safety" del los bonos, hacia otras clases de activos. Yo pienso que hay otra razon. Muchos se estan espantando por lo que ven en torno a gasto deficitario de EEUU, y el miedo que el Fed monatize algo de la deuda, precipitando inflacion.

Alejandro Villagomez dijo...

La última parte del comentario no me queda clara... mi lectura es que aún hay un importnate movimiento a refugio seguro hacia los bonos y en parte eso explica la enorme volatilidad en los mercados de divisas en México y muchos otros países del mundo, como lo vimos los últimos días

Anónimo dijo...

Saludos Alejandro....Puede ser que hay un movimiento hacia refugio seguro, pero actualmente, mas gestores ven con cautela los Treasuries. No porque piensen que EEUU vaya a incumplir con amortizar la deuda, sino porque temen que el FED vaya a imprimir muchos dolares, precipitando minusvalias. Ayer EEUU anuncio el peor reporte laboral en mas de 30 anos. Esto deberia hacer que todos hubieran comprado Treasuries, como refugio. No paso. Aqui te dejo el comentario de Barron's..........................Supply-Side Hit to T-Bonds..........................
By RANDALL W. FORSYTH..........................
Treasury yields are on the rise. Debit that!..........................

THE U.S. WILL PAY A STEEP price for its stimulus program. As Congress continues to assemble a fiscal package whose total is reaching $900 billion and the Obama administration is set to unveil its bank-rescue plan, Treasury-note yields have moved up sharply ahead of the massive escalation in borrowing needs.
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Indeed, the Treasury and stock markets reacted perversely to Friday's news of the biggest monthly decline in payroll employment since 1974. Bond prices fell and their yield racheted up while stocks rallied as the horrible news on the jobs front further stepped up pressure to enact a substantial stimulus program.
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While the equity markets anticipated that this massive government spending would lift growth and profits, the Treasury market has to deal with the job of financing it. This week, it faces a record, $67 billion quarterly refunding.
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That helped send the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.99%, up nearly 100 basis points (a full percentage point) from early January and up 20 basis points from a week earlier. Meantime, the 30-year bond yield ended Friday at 3.70%, up 10 basis points on the week and up 109 basis points from its low just before year-end.
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To put those moves in perspective, the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund (ticker: TLT), which tracks the long end of the market, has lost 16% since Dec. 30. Even after the worst January on record, the Standard & Poor's 500 SPDRS (SPY) are off only 2.25% over that span, with a boost from last week's 5% advance.
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Meanwhile, the short end of the Treasury market has been anchored by the Federal Reserve's policy of targeting the federal funds rate in a range of 0-0.25%. Even so, the two-year note yield has moved up about 25 basis points, to 1%.
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That has resulted in a much more steeply sloped yield curve, popularly defined by two points -- the two- and 10-year notes. The spread between them is up to nearly 200 basis points, about half again as much as at the turn of the year.
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The traditional inference from this yield-curve steepening has been that the market anticipates economic recovery, higher inflation or both. Most real economists -- as opposed to those who play one on TV -- dismiss that interpretation.
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The Economic Cycle Research Institute's Future Inflation Gauge fell to a 50-year low in January. The employment data show a shocking collapse, with the loss of 3.6 million jobs in the past year, a third of them since September, when the bottom fell out of the credit market with the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
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The more plausible explanation of the backup in long-term Treasury yields has been the market's fear of excess supplies of securities. That has translated into an increase in the cost of insuring U.S. Treasury debt for five years to a record 82 basis points Friday, up 15 basis points in a day. (That means it costs 82,000 euros annually to insure €10 million worth of Treasuries for five years, up from €7,000 on Thursday. Credit-default swaps on U.S. debt are quoted in euros, given the ability of the government to print dollars to pay its obligations.)
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The Fed has said it would consider buying long Treasuries to bring down their yield. The bond vigilantes are daring the U.S. central bank to follow through on its word......http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396537872558799.html