lunes, 23 de febrero de 2009

Efecto Fiscal en la tasa de interés

En una nota de Krugman, Liquidity preference versus loanable funds, televised (wonkish, with video), presenta un pequeño ejercicio como los que solemos hacer en clase para explicar el posible efecto de los esímulos fiscales sobre la tasa de interés real en el mercado de fondos prestables. Vale la pena que lo vean los estudiantes de nuestros cursos.....

The diagram....shows two hypothetical IS curves, one for 2006, when the US was arguably at full employment, one for this year. In either case government borrowing for stimulus would have the effect of shifting the IS curve right. And if we were at full employment, George Will’s point would have been correct: interest rates would have gone up, because central banks would have raised rates to choke off potential inflation.
But where we actually are is hard up against the zero lower bound. And a rightward shift of the IS curve won’t raise rates unless it’s big enough to push us to full employment, which doesn’t seem likely.

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