Es ahora la OECD la que recomienda a México adoptar una regla fiscal ajustada por el ciclo económico en su Reporte sobre la Economía Mexicana 2009, publicado ayer. Concretamente dice:
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...the recent decision to raise the maximum size of the oil stabilization funds goes in the right direction, but Mexico should consider eliminating this limit altogether. Also, like other oil-exporting countries, Mexico should seek to strengthen the counter cyclical framework of the budget, by adopting a new fiscal rule adjusted for the cycle. This would lead to prudent fiscal management practices including a) smooth growth of public spending in line with economic growth, b) automatic savings of oil revenue above what is implied by the rule when the oil price is high and c) automatic spending of accumulated savings when oil revenue is low. This would improve the role played by fiscal policy in macroeconomic management, would phase in gradually the injection of oil wealth into the economy and would contribute to long-term sustainability. The appropriate level of the limit on the structural non-oil deficit would depend on various factors, many of which come with large uncertainties, such as level of oil extraction. Given these uncertainties, the limit for the non-oil structural deficit should be reviewed regularly, so as to stabilize the net financial position of the public sector: increases in net financial assets would suggest that there is space for running a higher non-oil structural deficit, while increases in net financial liabilities would call for tightening the non-oil structural deficit target.
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En febrero pasado, el FMI ya lo había sugerido en su porpio Reporte para México, y el cual comenté en este Post. Concretamente:
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40. Finally, the staff and the authorities discussed the possibility of eventually refining the fiscal policy framework. The balanced budget rule has a number of advantages and is supportive of fiscal discipline, but some features may be procyclical in nature or do not always assure the operation of automatic stabilizers. Consideration could be given to a rule that would allow greater, and more systematic, smoothing of expenditure in response to cyclical fluctuations (across budget years) in output and the tax base. This would help smooth the business cycle in a credibility-consistent manner
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Este punto lo he venido señalando YO desde hace ya varios años, tanto en mis columnas, como en conferencias y en mi investigación académica, como lo acabo de volver a comentar en un post reciente Multipliers and the Role of Government a raíz de un comentario de Mark Thoma en su Blog.
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También en un artículo académico que publiqué en Applied Economics en el 2007 Structural Budget Balance: a preliminary estimation for Mexico, Applied Economics (ver liga en la columna derecha de este Blog)
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También en un artículo académico que publiqué en Applied Economics en el 2007 Structural Budget Balance: a preliminary estimation for Mexico, Applied Economics (ver liga en la columna derecha de este Blog)
