domingo, 13 de mayo de 2012

Multiplicadores Fiscales Durante la Recesión

Para los que han seguido el debate en la academia durante la reciente crisis sobre la importancia de los multiplicadores fiscales y el uso de políticas contracíclicas, les comparto estos trabajos recientes que me parecen muy interesantes
El primero (HT Blog NEP-DGE) utiliza un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico, pero introduce fricciones financieras vía el crédito y obtiene resultados que justifican el uso de política fiscal contracíclica... este paper sugiere lo siguiente
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The Great Recession, and the fiscal response to it, has revived interest in the size of fiscal multipliers. Standard business cycle models have difficulties generating multipliers greater than one. And they also fail to produce any significant asymmetry in the size of the multipliers over the business cycle. In this paper we employ a variant of the Curdia-Woodford model of costly financial intermediation to show that fiscal multipliers are strongly countercyclical. In particular, they can take values exceeding two during recessions, declining to values below one during expansions.
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En ese mismo post, está un comentario de C. Zimmermann en donde hace referencia a este otro paper
Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion de Auerbach y Gorodnichenki 

In this paper, we estimate government purchase multipliers for a large number of OECD countries, allowing these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and using real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. We adapt our previous methodology (Auerbach and Gorodnichenko, 2011) to use direct projections rather than the SVAR approach to estimate multipliers, to economize on degrees of freedom and to relax the assumptions on impulse response functions imposed by the SVAR method. Our findings confirm those of our earlier paper. In particular, GDP multipliers of government purchases are larger in recession, and controlling for real-time predictions of government purchases tends to increase the estimated multipliers of government purchases in recession. We also consider the responses of other key macroeconomic variables and find that these responses generally vary over the cycle as well, in a pattern consistent with the varying impact on GDP.
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Creo que son resultados bastante interesantes para los que seguimos esta discusión y estamos realizando trabajo académico en esta materia. Como lo digo en mi libro sobre la crisis mundial, este debate será largo y aún no está todo dicho!!!!