sábado, 5 de noviembre de 2011

Summers y los modelos DSGE

Mi colega del CIDE Alejandro López me ha dado esta referencia de esta entrevista a Summers en el MIT NEWs.... reproduzco la última parte, porque forma parte de un debate mucho más amplio y que ya lleva mucho tiempo y del cual he dado constancia en este Blog... es una opinión extendida entre muchos otros economistas como Striglitz, Krugman, Shiller y otros más
Summers also weighed in on economists’ performance in light of the largely unanticipated economic crisis. For the most part, Summers defended economists, arguing that the profession has made world leaders better informed in recent decades.

“I’ve had meetings with vice premiers, number-two people in China, who have asked me questions about NBER [National Bureau of Economic Research] working papers in macroeconomics,” Summers said. “That says the work has an enormously positive and important impact.”

However, Summers asserted, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models used by many economists, which often assume the economy will naturally return to a basic equilibrium with full employment, have been of little value in these complex times.

“In four years of reflection and rather intense involvement with this financial crisis, not a single aspect of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium has seemed worth even a passing thought,” Summers said, adding: “I think the profession is not entirely innocent.”

Still, Summers said, the complaint that economists should have seen the crisis coming represents “a confusion” on the part of critics. Identifying financial bubbles and knowing when they will burst, he claimed, “is to ask more of the profession than it can reasonably expect to discover.”

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