domingo, 6 de noviembre de 2011

Rogoff Sobre el Euro

En esta columna, K. Rogoff comenta por qué considera que el euro debería de caer. Vale la pena revisarla, pues como siempre he mencionado, Rogoff es uno de los principales expertos académicos en el mundo sobre este tema.


"...Absent a clear path to a much tighter fiscal and political union, which can lead only through constitutional change, the current halfway house of the euro system appears increasingly untenable. It seems clear that the European Central Bank will be forced to buy far greater quantities of eurozone sovereign (junk) bonds. That may work in the short term, but if sovereign default risks materialize – as my research with Carmen Reinhart suggests is likely – the ECB will in turn have to be recapitalized. And, if the stronger northern eurozone countries are unwilling to digest this transfer – and political resistance runs high – the ECB may be forced to recapitalize itself through money creation. Either way, the threat of a profound financial crisis is high..."

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