Cuando se produjo la crisis del 2009, se temía que ocurriera una Gran depresión. Al final se produce la recuperación en el segundo semestre del 2009 y se acuño a este evento sólo como una Gran Recesión. Yo mismo he usado este término, incluso en mi libro que acabo de publicar. Sin embargo, en este editorial Rogoff hace un buen punto en donde defiende el uso incorrecto de Gran recesión e insiste en llamarla la Segunda Gran Contracción... no es sólo un asunto de semántica y creo que estoy de acuerdo con él. De hecho esto ayuda a explicar lo que estamos viviendo en estos día en todo el mundo
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...The phrase “Great Recession” creates the impression that the economy is following the contours of a typical recession, only more severe – something like a really bad cold. That is why, throughout this downturn, forecasters and analysts who have tried to make analogies to past post-war US recessions have gotten it so wrong. Moreover, too many policymakers have relied on the belief that, at the end of the day, this is just a deep recession that can be subdued by a generous helping of conventional policy tools, whether fiscal policy or massive bailouts.
But the real problem is that the global economy is badly overleveraged, and there is no quick escape without a scheme to transfer wealth from creditors to debtors, either through defaults, financial repression, or inflation.
...The phrase “Great Recession” creates the impression that the economy is following the contours of a typical recession, only more severe – something like a really bad cold. That is why, throughout this downturn, forecasters and analysts who have tried to make analogies to past post-war US recessions have gotten it so wrong. Moreover, too many policymakers have relied on the belief that, at the end of the day, this is just a deep recession that can be subdued by a generous helping of conventional policy tools, whether fiscal policy or massive bailouts.
But the real problem is that the global economy is badly overleveraged, and there is no quick escape without a scheme to transfer wealth from creditors to debtors, either through defaults, financial repression, or inflation.
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