jueves, 5 de abril de 2012

Tyler Cowen Piensa que México le va Ganando la Guerra al Narco

Un par de interesantes posts de Tyler Cowen, uno de los bloggeros más influyentes. Ayer señaló que, poniéndose del lado poco de moda, el pensaba que México le iba ganando la guerra al narco.

This year, though, the peso is up 9.3% against the dollar, making it one of the top-performing emerging-market currencies…

There is more here. I am of the unfashionable opinion that Mexico is actually winning the war against the drug lords.

Esto provocó una serie de fuertes reacciones en contra. Hoy argumenta por qué sigue pensando eso.

Mexico is still growing, and quite robustly, even after the drug lords have given it their best shot. The currency is up over nine percent this year.

If Mexico keeps on getting richer, and the drug lords keep on killing each other, eventually Mexico will win. Think rates of return, or think of government revenue as rising over time. I’m not saying the drug problem will ever disappear there.

Murder rates have stabilized or fallen in some key northern cities, including Juarez. Sending in the army seems to yield returns, in light of scared and corrupt local police forces.

Both the American recovery and the slowdown in China, combined with higher Chinese wages, will help Mexico and thus help the government against the drug gangs.

I fully admit this is speculation on my part, but it is my view.
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Concuerdo con él que es una especulación que supone extrapolar ciertos datos y asumir que los narcos son un dato "fijo". por deshracia esto no es claro y día con día vemos cómo surgen hasta por debajo de las piedras.... al parecer el problema no son "los señores de las drogas" sino buena parte de la violencia son pequeños narcos sin control....