Crisis de Deuda Soberana Europea y el Plan Brady

Desde hace ya tiempo se viene insistiendo en que la reestructuración de la deuda griega (y posiblemente irlandesa y portuguesa) son eventos inminentes ya que los rescates y medidas de austeridad adoptados hasta ahora han sido insuficientes. Al menos los mercados han estado presionando los rendimientos de los papeles a largo de estos países, complicando el problema. Un artículo en Spiegel on line International se refiere a una segunda fase de esta crisis y propone adoptar un plan similar al que siguió México y otros países latinoamericanos durante sus crisis de deuda soberana en los ochentas, el Plan Brady.

Euro Zone Should Look to Brady Plan to Solve Its Crisis ....Yet, while discussions of burden-sharing have been inappropriate during the current, initial stage of the euro-zone debt crisis, it is important that both euro-zone creditors and debtors realize that this issue will be crucial as we enter the second, and final, stage of the sovereign debt crisis. Financial history clearly tells us that sovereign debt crises cannot be settled without genuine burden-sharing between creditors and debtors at some point................. ..............When thinking about how the euro zone will successfully navigate the second, burden-sharing phase of its crisis, an important historical precedent is fortunately available in the form of the 1980s Latin American debt crisis. That crisis principally involved a number of Latin American country debtors and large, mostly American creditor banks. In 1982, Mexico and other large Latin American countries stopped servicing their large dollar-denominated debts to US banks, which would have become insolvent as a consequence if their bad loans had been valued on the basis of their current market price. Crucially, however, in a bid to protect the solvency of the US banking system at the time, US banking regulators adopted a strategy of so-called "regulatory forbearance" toward American banks that shielded them from having to immediately recognize their enormous loan losses. That move contained the crisis and bought time for the banks to gradually build up profitability and sufficient loan-loss reserves. It was only in 1989, seven years after the beginning of the crisis, that the Brady Plan began the second, crisis-resolution stage of the Latin American debt crisis...............