Navegando porla econoblogósfera me topé con este post en el Blog Stumbling and Mumbling en donde se hace referencia a un trabajo Class Struggle and Economic Fluctuations: VAR
Analysis of the post-War U.S. Economy de investigadores de UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST
Me llamó particularmente la atención por que reinvindica el análisis marxista para explicar los ciclos económicos y la crisis reciente, pero además lo prueba utilizando metodologías econométricas como la de vectores autoregresivos. El abstract señala que
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We use a vector autoregression (VAR) methodology to assess the empirical relevance of an augmented CPS [cyclical profit squeeze] model for the U.S. economy…Our results are consistent with the operation of the CPS mechanism, both under regulated and neoliberal capitalism. This suggests that Marx’s analysis of the fluctuations of the reserve army of labour…remains a powerful analytical framework for understanding macroeconomic fluctuations in capitalism.
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y en el cuerpo del estudio señala la intuición
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To understand its logic, let us start at the recovery phase of a typical business cycle. As the recovery picks up, capital accumulation increases, and employment grows; by about mid-expansion, the labour market starts tightening. This signals a change in the power of labour vis-a-vis capital, and is reflected in growing real wages. Competition, both domestic and international, constrains the ability of capitalist firms to raise prices in tandem with growing labour costs. The result is a reversal of the relative shares of income going to capital and labour: from mid-expansion onwards, the share of income going to capital gradually declines. A recession is necessary to weaken the relative power of labour vis-a-vis capital and halt the decline in the relative income share of capital.
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Pero adicionalmente en el post del blog que señalé, se hace referencia a algunos conceptos y estudios relativamente recientes que sustentarían o apoyarían el análisis marxistas, entre los que señala los siguientes
.Analysis of the post-War U.S. Economy de investigadores de UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST
Me llamó particularmente la atención por que reinvindica el análisis marxista para explicar los ciclos económicos y la crisis reciente, pero además lo prueba utilizando metodologías econométricas como la de vectores autoregresivos. El abstract señala que
.
We use a vector autoregression (VAR) methodology to assess the empirical relevance of an augmented CPS [cyclical profit squeeze] model for the U.S. economy…Our results are consistent with the operation of the CPS mechanism, both under regulated and neoliberal capitalism. This suggests that Marx’s analysis of the fluctuations of the reserve army of labour…remains a powerful analytical framework for understanding macroeconomic fluctuations in capitalism.
.
y en el cuerpo del estudio señala la intuición
.
To understand its logic, let us start at the recovery phase of a typical business cycle. As the recovery picks up, capital accumulation increases, and employment grows; by about mid-expansion, the labour market starts tightening. This signals a change in the power of labour vis-a-vis capital, and is reflected in growing real wages. Competition, both domestic and international, constrains the ability of capitalist firms to raise prices in tandem with growing labour costs. The result is a reversal of the relative shares of income going to capital and labour: from mid-expansion onwards, the share of income going to capital gradually declines. A recession is necessary to weaken the relative power of labour vis-a-vis capital and halt the decline in the relative income share of capital.
.
Pero adicionalmente en el post del blog que señalé, se hace referencia a algunos conceptos y estudios relativamente recientes que sustentarían o apoyarían el análisis marxistas, entre los que señala los siguientes
- The labour theory of value, much maligned as it is, does a rather good job of explaining relative prices.
- Daniel Kahneman’s work on cognitive biases can be read as corroboration of Marx’s theory that capitalism generates an ideology which prevents people seeing its injustices.
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Esto me llama mucho la atención, pero reconozco que hace ya muchos años que leí a la teoría marxista. Lo que recuerdo es que el problema de la transformación de valores en precios no se había resuelto.... y lo de Kahneman habría que pensarlo dos veces!!!!
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