Una noticia rondó muchos medios en el mundo en las últimas 48 horas. En Estados Unidos, la lotería había acumulado una bolsa histórica: $656 millones de dólares y anoche fue el sorteo. Esto causó enorme sensación y normalmente en estos casos la compra de boletos aumenta de manera dramática. Las noticias el día de hoy es que al menos existen 3 ganadores y cada uno recibirá 105 millones después de impuestos.
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Pero el suceso, que ocurre en todo momento en todo el mundo en donde existen estas loterías es que existe una amplia literatura que muestra que jugarla es una pésima decisión debido a que las probabilidades de ganar son prácticamente cero!
En este artículo de Moyer en Scientific American, No Matter How Huge, Mega Millions Jackpot Will Always Be a Bad Bet, el autor señala
Even in the case of the current drawing, which offers a jackpot so large that Garibaldi and Abrams show how it should only occur on average every 22 years, the number of tickets that go out is correspondingly large. “I ran the numbers last night,” Garibaldi told me over the phone. “You can tell by the amount they estimate the jackpot to be what they estimate the ticket sales to be.” Based on the current jackpot, an estimated 380 million tickets have been sold this week. The estimated return on an investment of this week’s Mega Millions drawing? Negative 19 percent, per his calculations.
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En otro artículo en su blog, Felix Salmon señala: "realistically, your chance of winning the jackpot is zero. Technically, it’s one in 175,711,536, or 0.000000569%. Which is statistically the same as zero.
Sin embargo, ambos autores terminan sus notas señalando que a pesar de estos argumentos, tienen que reconocer que en estos casos ellos sí comprar boletos ¿por qué?... Salmon dice: "But it’s not psychologically the same as zero — and that’s what counts. When you buy your lottery ticket, it’s impossible not to dream of all the things which might happen if you won. (My dream now has to include the inconvenient fact that my winning lottery numbers will have been broadcast on YouTube.) The dream is pleasant enough to be worth a buck — at least to someone with a buck to spare, like me. In fact, it’s so pleasant that sometimes I won’t even check my lottery numbers, because I don’t like the opposite feeling of finding out I haven’t won."
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Mientras que Moyer argumenta: "That said, Garibaldi bought five tickets. “I know it’s throwing money away,” he admitted, but it’s fun to be in on the action. That’s why I don’t feel bad about buying 100 tickets for my father-in-law, either. Besides, he promised to split the jackpot with the rest of the family. With zero out-of-pocket expenses, my rate of return is infinite"
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Pero el suceso, que ocurre en todo momento en todo el mundo en donde existen estas loterías es que existe una amplia literatura que muestra que jugarla es una pésima decisión debido a que las probabilidades de ganar son prácticamente cero!
En este artículo de Moyer en Scientific American, No Matter How Huge, Mega Millions Jackpot Will Always Be a Bad Bet, el autor señala
Even in the case of the current drawing, which offers a jackpot so large that Garibaldi and Abrams show how it should only occur on average every 22 years, the number of tickets that go out is correspondingly large. “I ran the numbers last night,” Garibaldi told me over the phone. “You can tell by the amount they estimate the jackpot to be what they estimate the ticket sales to be.” Based on the current jackpot, an estimated 380 million tickets have been sold this week. The estimated return on an investment of this week’s Mega Millions drawing? Negative 19 percent, per his calculations.
.
En otro artículo en su blog, Felix Salmon señala: "realistically, your chance of winning the jackpot is zero. Technically, it’s one in 175,711,536, or 0.000000569%. Which is statistically the same as zero.
Sin embargo, ambos autores terminan sus notas señalando que a pesar de estos argumentos, tienen que reconocer que en estos casos ellos sí comprar boletos ¿por qué?... Salmon dice: "But it’s not psychologically the same as zero — and that’s what counts. When you buy your lottery ticket, it’s impossible not to dream of all the things which might happen if you won. (My dream now has to include the inconvenient fact that my winning lottery numbers will have been broadcast on YouTube.) The dream is pleasant enough to be worth a buck — at least to someone with a buck to spare, like me. In fact, it’s so pleasant that sometimes I won’t even check my lottery numbers, because I don’t like the opposite feeling of finding out I haven’t won."
.
Mientras que Moyer argumenta: "That said, Garibaldi bought five tickets. “I know it’s throwing money away,” he admitted, but it’s fun to be in on the action. That’s why I don’t feel bad about buying 100 tickets for my father-in-law, either. Besides, he promised to split the jackpot with the rest of the family. With zero out-of-pocket expenses, my rate of return is infinite"
Dicho lo anterior, regreso al rato ya que tengo que ir por mi Melate!!!!
1 comentario:
A mí siempre me ha gustado jugar a la lotería, a pesar de que las probabilidades de ganar sean bajas. Si le toca siempre a alguien por qué no puedes ser tú? La administración de lotería Valdés siempre me ha gustado mucho y cada año por fechas señaladas voy a por algún que otro número :)
Un saludo,
Pili
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