Rogoff y la Unión Monetaria

Interesante entrevista de Rogoff en Spiegel Online

'Germany Has Been the Winner in the Globalization Process'

SPIEGEL: Economic imbalances within the euro zone are regarded as one of the main reasons behind the current mess. The southern European states accuse the Germans of exporting too much. Do they have a point?

Rogoff: That is absurd. Portugal's and Spain's problem isn't Germany, it's China. The south Europeans have to understand that they cannot maintain their current standard of living in the context of globalization without significant economic reform. There are great opportunities for those who can adapt to the new realities.

Reconsiderando el Crecimiento: Rogoff

Como siempre, una interesante nota de Rogoff...

"...Modern macroeconomics often seems to treat rapid and stable economic growth as the be-all and end-all of policy. That message is echoed in political debates, central-bank boardrooms, and front-page headlines. But does it really make sense to take growth as the main social objective in perpetuity, as economics textbooks implicitly assume?.."

Sobrevivirá el Capitalismo? Rogoff

Una interesante reflexión de Rogoff...Is Modern Capitalism Sustainable?.. tema que hace mucho no tratan economistas de la llamada "corriente principal de la economía"..
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...Second, along with great wealth, capitalism has produced extraordinary levels of inequality. The growing gap is partly a simple byproduct of innovation and entrepreneurship. People do not complain about Steve Jobs’s success; his contributions are obvious. But this is not always the case: great wealth enables groups and individuals to buy political power and influence, which in turn helps to generate even more wealth. Only a few countries – Sweden, for example – have been able to curtail this vicious circle without causing growth to collapse
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Will capitalism be a victim of its own success in producing massive wealth? For now, as fashionable as the topic of capitalism’s demise might be, the possibility seems remote. Nevertheless, as pollution, financial instability, health problems, and inequality continue to grow, and as political systems remain paralyzed, capitalism’s future might not seem so secure in a few decades as it seems now.

Lecturas Recomendadas: Economía Mexicana; 9/11

Algunas lecturas para el fin de semana:
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Un artículo en The Economist sobre la economía mexicana. Creo que sobrevaloran el papel del libre comercio.
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El punto de vista de Stiglitz sobre el costo del 9/11
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Rogoff y una reflexión sobre Europa y el FMI... buena nota

Rogoff y Krugman Sobre la crisis: CNN

Gran Recesión o Gran Contracción

Cuando se produjo la crisis del 2009, se temía que ocurriera una Gran depresión. Al final se produce la recuperación en el segundo semestre del 2009 y se acuño a este evento sólo como una Gran Recesión. Yo mismo he usado este término, incluso en mi libro que acabo de publicar. Sin embargo, en este editorial Rogoff hace un buen punto en donde defiende el uso incorrecto de Gran recesión e insiste en llamarla la Segunda Gran Contracción... no es sólo un asunto de semántica y creo que estoy de acuerdo con él. De hecho esto ayuda a explicar lo que estamos viviendo en estos día en todo el mundo

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The Second Great Contraction, Kenneth Rogoff

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...The phrase “Great Recession” creates the impression that the economy is following the contours of a typical recession, only more severe – something like a really bad cold. That is why, throughout this downturn, forecasters and analysts who have tried to make analogies to past post-war US recessions have gotten it so wrong. Moreover, too many policymakers have relied on the belief that, at the end of the day, this is just a deep recession that can be subdued by a generous helping of conventional policy tools, whether fiscal policy or massive bailouts.

But the real problem is that the global economy is badly overleveraged, and there is no quick escape without a scheme to transfer wealth from creditors to debtors, either through defaults, financial repression, or inflation.

Lecturas Recomendadas: Lucas Sobre la Recuperación en Estados Unidos y Rogoff y Reinhart Sobre el Peligro de la Deuda

Dos buenas notas para revisar

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En esta nota en el WSJ, Lucas advierte que seguir el modelo de crecimiento europeo con un gran estado del bienestar e intervencionista conducirá a una pobre senda de crecimiento futura

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En esta otra nota de Bloomberg, Rogoff y Reinhart advierten sobre el peligro de ser complacientes con los niveles de deuda pública actual....

Lecturas Recomendadas: Rogoff, Stiglitz,

Algunas notas que vale la pena revisar:
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The Ideological Crisis of Western Capitalism, Joseph E. Stiglitz
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Technology and Inequality , Kenneth Rogoff

Rogoff y la Sucesión en el FMI

Interesante editorial de Rogoff en el NYT
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Op-Ed Contributor: After the Scandal, More of the Same at the I.M.F.

By KENNETH S. ROGOFF
(New York Times) -- Cambridge, Mass.
AS the world struggles to emerge from the greatest financial crisis since the Depression, the institution at the heart of the global economic system is facing a profound crisis of governance.
Since the International Monetary Fund's inception at the end of World War II, Europe and the United States have dominated decision-making. Incredibly, and possibly dangerously, decisions are now being made to keep the backward-looking status quo for at least another five years.
True, the final stage of the race for the top job at the I.M.F. still offers the possibility that a Mexican candidate might beat out the French front-runner. Unfortunately, with Europe still controlling an excessive voting share, the outcome has all the suspense of a Soviet-era election. Worse, the I.M.F. board does not seem to feel the need to establish even a pretext of legitimacy for the powerful No. 2 position; everyone takes for granted that the board will rubber-stamp whomever the Obama administration nominates.
In a world where markets already pay more attention to what happens in China than in Europe, and where loans from emerging economies are keeping the debt-challenged United States economy on life support, the I.M.F.'s outdated governance practices have become an accident waiting to happen. The I.M.F. has long been the last line of defense in emerging-market debt crises, combining big short-term loans with technical assistance that has proven effective far more often than not. Today it is on the front lines of the European debt crisis, with Greece, Ireland and Portugal teetering on the brink. Given Japan's huge debts and demographic implosion, and China's runaway growth boom, it is not hard to imagine a vast I.M.F. program in Asia in the next decade. Even the United States is a potential customer if it continues for another 10 or 15 years to neglect its soaring debt burden.
If the fast-growing economies of Asia and Latin America feel disenfranchised from the I.M.F. - there is still a strong undercurrent of hostility in Asia over the fund's handling of the
1997-98 Asian financial crisis - it will be difficult for the I.M.F. to raise money to deal with Europe and potentially Japan and to credibly do its work in emerging markets now and in the future. And because American and European leaders do not want to hear when their monetary, fiscal or regulatory policies are out of whack, the I.M.F. is really the only strong voice that can deliver the message; a non-European is best-equipped to deliver it.
Until a few weeks ago, everyone seemed to agree that it was high time for a change. The presumption was that the I.M.F. board would choose its next managing director from the handful of supremely qualified candidates from emerging markets, thereby strengthening its claim to be a truly global institution. The incumbent, Dominique Strauss-Kahn of France, was on record supporting a transparent, merit-based approach for choosing his successor. Given the prestige he had amassed leading the I.M.F. during the crisis, it was assumed that he would use his influence to shepherd in the new era.
Everything changed in mid-May. Mr. Strauss-Kahn was forced to resign after being accused of sexually assaulting a hotel housekeeper. Suddenly, the I.M.F. became tabloid fodder and the plans for an open and meritocratic selection process were tossed out the window. With the I.M.F.'s legitimacy now under unexpected attack on a second front, gender inequality, European leaders inventively coalesced around the French finance minister, Christine Lagarde.
Just a short while ago, the fact that Ms. Lagarde is French would surely have been disqualifying, given that the French have held the I.M.F. leadership for most of the last three decades.
Ms. Lagarde's training as a lawyer, rather than as an economist, might also have been an obstacle. The head of the I.M.F. is like the head of a central bank, and is frequently confronted with difficult judgments on the sizing and timing of debt programs, not to mention on monetary policy and regulation.
Ms. Lagarde has provided a strong and clear voice on the need for dramatic financial sector reform. But weighed against Mexico's candidate, Agustín G. Carstens, she might have come up short, at least prior to the Strauss-Kahn debacle. Mr. Carstens, who has a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago, has a golden C.V. for the job. The head of the I.M.F. routinely deals with central bankers as well as finance ministers, and Mr. Carstens had held both positions in Mexico. He has also served as a deputy managing director of the I.M.F. and knows the institution inside and out. Mr. Carstens has rightly argued that a European is going to be hugely conflicted in managing the central challenge facing the I.M.F. today: Europe. Soon, the I.M.F. will likely have to help manage government debt defaults in more than one European nation, starting with Greece. European leaders want to kick the can down the road by bribing the Greeks with more loans to prevent them from defaulting. This is where the I.M.F. normally preaches tough love.
The I.M.F. board has given itself until June 30 to decide. The circumstances of Mr. Strauss-Kahn's departure have to be taken into consideration, and the fallout on gender issues is not over. There has never been a woman as head of a major multilateral lending institution, and Ms. Lagarde is a highly credible candidate. It seems a done deal, though perhaps there is some way to cap the length of her tenure and improve the selection process next time. And the managing director is not the only position that matters. At the end of August, John P. Lipsky, the first deputy managing director, who was named to the job by the Bush administration, is due to step down. Why not see if one of the top emerging-market candidates can be a replacement? An effective No. 2 would also be well-positioned to take over when Ms. Lagarde herself steps down. (The last three I.M.F. managing directors have departed without completing their terms.)
There is still time to set in place a merit-based selection process that could eventually form the basis for filling the top job. The I.M.F. may be a poorly understood institution, but it does not have to be a poorly governed one.

Kenneth S. Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard, is the co-author of "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly." He was chief economist at the I.M.F. from 2001 to 2003.

Copyright 2011 The New York Times Company

-0- Jun/16/2011 16:59 GMT

Lecturas Recomendadas: Stiglitz y Rogoff

Dos editoriales recomendables para el inicio del fin de semana
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Choosing the IMF’s Next Leader, Joseph E. Stiglitz
... se sorprenderán que esta apoyando a Lagarde!!... bueno, recordemos que el gobierno de Sarkosy lo ha contratado (a buen precio) para realizar estudios, en particular sobre una medición alternativa del PIB... (no todo es blanco y negro, verdad? y menos puro)
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The Euro’s PIG-Headed Masters, Kenneth Rogoff ... como siempre, una gran pluma

Lecturas Recomendadas: Rogoff, Feldstein, Sachs

Algunas recomendaciones para el cierre de fin de semana . A Cure for Fiscal Failure? Rogoff . The Arab Young and Restless, Sachs . Chinas´s Five Year Plan and Global Interest Rates Feldstein

Entrevista a Rogofff

Definitivamente, Rogoff es uno de los economistas que más respeto y sus opiniones son de mucha valía. Aquí les comparto una breve entrevista con el WSJ, de donde rescato dos frases contundentes con las que concuerdo totalmente

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...But the timing of crises is very difficult to call. It’s like a heart attack. A good cardiologist can assess someone’s risk, but it’s very difficult to predict the timing.
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...The first thing to understand about exchange rates is that you can’t understand them. You have to approach the market with a lot of humility.

Stiglitz y Rogoff: Desigualdad y los Conflictos Árabes

Dos editoriales el día de hoy que reflexionan sobre los conflictos en Tunez y Egipto y la desiguladad.
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The Tunisian Catalyst , Joseph E. Stiglitz

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...Even providing good education may not suffice. All over the world, countries are struggling to create enough jobs for new entrants into the labor force. High unemployment and pervasive corruption, however, create a combustible combination. Economic studies show that what is really important to a country’s performance is a sense of equity and fair play...

...A sense of fair play requires voice, which can be achieved only through public dialogue. Everyone stresses the rule of law, but it matters a great deal what kind of rule of law is established. For laws can be used to ensure equality of opportunity and tolerance, or they can be used to maintain inequalities and the power of elites...
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The Inequality Wildcard , Kenneth Rogoff

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...Within countries, inequality of income, wealth, and opportunity is arguably greater than at any time in the last century. Across Europe, Asia, and the Americas, corporations are bulging with cash as their relentless drive for efficiency continues to yield huge profits. Yet workers’ share of the pie is falling, thanks to high unemployment, shortened working hours, and stagnant wages...
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...What is clear is that inequality is not just a long-term issue. Concerns about the impact of income inequality are already constraining fiscal and monetary policy in developed and developing countries alike as they attempt to extricate themselves from the hyper-stimulative policies adopted during the financial crisis...

Lecturas Recomendadas: Rogoff y Shiller

Dos editoriales el día de hoy que vale la pena revisar
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$10,000 Gold? , Kenneth Rogoff.... una interesante reflexión sobre el alto precio del oro
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The Survival of the Safest, By ROBERT J. SHILLER, en el NYT.... sobre como afecta la moral al comportamiento de la empresa actual y el desempleo, entre otras cosas....

El Debate sobre la Permanencia de Grecia en la Zona Euro

Algunas lecturas recomendadas sobre el problema griego, la posibilidad de que deje la zona Euro y la posibilidad de un default.

La primera es de Eichengreen quien insiste en que una salida de un miembro de la Unión Monetaria tendría un enorme costo al provocar una cadena de corridas bancarias.

Por su parte, Stiglitz argumenta que la entrada de algunos países a este acuerdo, entre ellos Grecia, fue un proceso acelerado y que no se cumplieron normas estrictas. El considera que si puede existir una salida, a menos que se tomen medidas globales más drásticas que implican reformas fundamentales. Su principal preocupación es que el costo actual de la solución propuesta es enorme para Grecia.

Finalmente, Rogoff, haciendo referencia a su libro con Reinhart, considera que la posibilidad de una crisis de deuda soberana y un default es muy alta, como lo demuestra la experiencia histórica (para ver esta nota en el FT puene registrarse gratis)

Tres expertos que hay que oir.....

Lectura Recomendada: Comentarios de Krugman sobre el Libro de Rogoff y Reinhard

Existe un libro que se publicó no hace mucho, This Time is Differente, de Rogoff y Reinhart, que seguramente se convertirá en una referencia obligada par el estudio de las crisis en el mundo, sobre todo por la información que contiene de varias décadas, tipos de crisis, etc...
En esta nota del The New York Review of Books, Krugman y Wells presentan una interesante reseña del libro que vale la pena revisar.... en la introducción dicen, por ejemplo..

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The Greek crisis came after the publication of This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, by Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff and the University of Maryland’s Carmen Reinhart, but it was a dramatic illustration of the point they make with their sarcastic title: the more things change in the financial world, the more they stay the same. The Greek debt crisis of 2010 bears a strong resemblance to the Mexican debt crisis of 1827; inflation in Zimbabwe is just the latest episode in a history of currency debasement that goes back to ancient Greek city-states; and last but not least, the US subprime crisis of 2008 followed the script of scores of banking crises past, going back at least as far as eighteenth-century Scotland...

Lecturas Recomendadas

Les comparto ligas para unas lecturas interesantes:
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En la primera, un editorial de Rogoff en donde argumenta por qué esta recuperación será muy lenta.
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En la segunda, M. Feldstein en un editorial discute la necesidad de que China modifique su política respecto a su moneda. (Es en el FT y hay que registrarse, pero es gratis)

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En esta, Baldwin hace un comentario sobre una publicación de Ch. Calomiris que analiza crisis pasadas y sus lecciones para la actual. Vale la pena, es muy corta.

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Finalmente, tratando de hacer justicia a Fama, esta liga va a su Blog en donde da respuesta a un libro reciente de Justin Fox en donde critica la Hipótesis de los Mercados Eficientes.

Rogoff Sugiere que el Crecimiento Económico Mundial "Normal" Futuro Será Bajo

En una nota publicada hoy, The “New Normal” for Growth, Rogoff sugiere que si bien existen ciertas expectativas por los llamados "Green Shoots", la realidad de las cosas es que seguramente tendremos que acostumbranos a un nuevo nivel "normal" de crecimiento en el futuro que será más bajo respecto a los visto en la última década. En partiuclar enfatiza los casos de Estados Unidos y China, países que venían siendo los motores de la economía mundial, pero que dificilmente podrán recuperar los ritmos antes observados. En el primer caso hace referencia la disminución de la participación del consumo en la economía norteamericana, a un nuevo sistema financiero que será más pequeño y altamente regulado y a la demanda por otros temas que significarán mayores costos a la economia aunque son necesarios (por ejemplo temas climáticos). En el caso de China sugiere que dificilmente recuperará su dinamismo exportador a los ritmos pasados y requiere de darle un mayor papel a su mercado interno.

ve mejores opciones en economía emergentes, pero no se refiere necesariamente a México.

Más sobre Desempleo

Para ampliar la reflexión que realicé ayer sobre desempleo, y en línea con lo que señalaba en el sentido de que las cosas respecto a desempleo seguramente estarán peor en los próximos meses, les recomiendo un paper que presentarán Rogoff y Reinhart en la próxima reunión de la American Economic Association en enero en San Francisco. En el realizan un análisis sobre distintas crisis financieras en diversos países, desarrollados y en desarrollo, y encuentran ciertas regularidades. Pero la que me importa destacar es sobre el desempleo, que en promedio aumenta 7% durante la fase descendente del ciclo y dura, en promedio, cuatro años. Es decir, este impacto es mayor que la duración en la contracción en el producto (aprox 2 años). Es cierto que México no esta en crisis financiera, pero en la medida que estamos enfrentando una crisis mundial, lo que suceda en este entorno nos afectará irremediablemente. Insisto, esta será una variable con un profundo efecto negativo y no se exactamente a que se refieren las autoridades cuando señalan que en enero anuanciarán medidas para evitarlo o mitigarlo.

Política Contracícla en Países en Desarrollo

Aquí les comparto un interesante artículo que saldrá en la versión impresa de The Economist sobre los márgenes de acción contracíclica en los paísesen desarrollo y la discusión entre Srtiglitz y Rogoff.