El Banco Mundial publica su reporte-alerta sobre el preocupante aumento de precios internacionales de alimentos, tema sobre el cual comenté desde finales del año pasado..... y habrá que estar pendientes
.
The World Bank’s food price index increased by 15% between October 2010 and January 2011 and is only 3% below its 2008 peak. The last six months have seen sharp increases in the global prices of wheat, maize, sugar and edible oils, with a relatively smaller increase in rice prices.
.
The transmission of higher global maize prices is varied and has depended significantly on domestic harvest conditions. Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have benefitted from excellent maize harvests, which have led to a sharp fall in prices. The declines from June–December 2010 shown in table 1 come on the heels of even sharper price falls in the early part of the year—on average, maize prices were lower in 2010 in comparison to 2009 in Uganda (52%), Rwanda (37%), Kenya (33%), Malawi (30%), Ethiopia (22%), and Tanzania (19%).1 However, these prices also exhibit considerable volatility, which has adverse impacts on both producers and consumers. For instance, after a sharp decline in the early part of 2010, maize prices in Rwanda have rebounded by 19% since June 2010. Several Latin American countries saw the price of maize rise dramatically in the last half of 2010 as dry weather lowered yields—the largest increases were witnessed in Brazil (56%) and Argentina (40%). Higher global maize prices are also passed through to consumers indirectly by raising animal feed prices, meat prices, and the price of many processed food categories.
.
The World Bank’s food price index increased by 15% between October 2010 and January 2011 and is only 3% below its 2008 peak. The last six months have seen sharp increases in the global prices of wheat, maize, sugar and edible oils, with a relatively smaller increase in rice prices.
.
The transmission of higher global maize prices is varied and has depended significantly on domestic harvest conditions. Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have benefitted from excellent maize harvests, which have led to a sharp fall in prices. The declines from June–December 2010 shown in table 1 come on the heels of even sharper price falls in the early part of the year—on average, maize prices were lower in 2010 in comparison to 2009 in Uganda (52%), Rwanda (37%), Kenya (33%), Malawi (30%), Ethiopia (22%), and Tanzania (19%).1 However, these prices also exhibit considerable volatility, which has adverse impacts on both producers and consumers. For instance, after a sharp decline in the early part of 2010, maize prices in Rwanda have rebounded by 19% since June 2010. Several Latin American countries saw the price of maize rise dramatically in the last half of 2010 as dry weather lowered yields—the largest increases were witnessed in Brazil (56%) and Argentina (40%). Higher global maize prices are also passed through to consumers indirectly by raising animal feed prices, meat prices, and the price of many processed food categories.
2 comentarios:
Las sequías que se han suscitado alrededor del globo, el aumento de demanda de granos en China y, en mayor medida, el impacto de la inyección de 600,000 millones de dólares en la economía estadounidense a finales del pasado año, han sido los factores que han llevado a este aumento exorbitante en los precios alimentarios. Hay que estar pendientes en la manera en el que el alza de estos precios genera presiones inflacionarias en otros sectores como el restaurantero. Además, es fundamental estar conscientes del impacto de estos precios en la canasta básica. Millones de mexicanos que viven con un sueldo mínimo sufrirán las repercusiones de esta alza. – JAVIER VILLALBA
Creo que es alarmante la situación de los precios de alimentos alrededor del mundo, más aun la situación en México, ya que de acuerdo con diversas fuentes oficiales, se estima una disminución en la producción de maíz blanco en Sinaloa y Sonora de alrededor 90% a causa de las pasadas heladas, lo que podría implicar un posible desabasto de maíz blanco en los meses subsiguientes a Mayo.
Además, el precio spot de maiz blanco se encuentra en niveles muy cercanos al presenciado en junio de 2008, el precio máximo en los últimos años.
Y aunque en maiz blanco no cuente con un mercado de futuros, es posible observar con el maiz amarillo que el precio de los contratos futuros continúan a la alza.
Esto nos lleva a pensar en el impacto que estos tendrá en los precios de la canasta básica los meses siguientes. Espero sigan habiendo publicaciones respecto a este tema en tu blog.
Juan David
Publicar un comentario