martes, 25 de enero de 2011

World Economic Outlook: FMI, Enero 2011

Hoy hizo público el FMI su reporte sobre la perspectiva económica mundial para el 2011-12.
WEO 2011.
Destaca una ligera actualización al alza. Las economías desarrolladas se mantendrán con bajos crecimientos, mientras que el impulso vendrá del mundo en desarrollo, y en particular los mercados emergentes.
A continuación unos párrafos del comunicado...
Activity in the advanced economies is projected to expand by 2½ percent during 2011–12, which is still sluggish considering the depth of the 2009 recession and insufficient to make a significant dent in high unemployment rates. Nevertheless, the 2011 growth projection is an upward revision of ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 WEO, mostly due to a new fiscal package passed in late 2010 in the United States that is expected to boost economic growth this year by ½ percent. A package with a similar growth impact passed in Japan is expected to sustain a moderate recovery in 2011. And although growth in the periphery of the euro area is marked down for this year, this is offset by an upward revision to growth in Germany, due to stronger domestic demand.

In both 2011 and 2012, growth in emerging and developing economies is expected to remain buoyant at 6½ percent, a modest slowdown from the 7 percent growth registered last year and broadly unchanged from the October 2010 WEO. Developing Asia continues to grow most rapidly, but other emerging regions are also expected to continue their strong rebound. Notably, growth in sub-Saharan Africa—projected at 5½ percent in 2011 and 5¾ percent in 2012—is expected to exceed growth in all other regions except developing Asia. This reflects sustained strength in domestic demand in many of the region’s economies as well as rising global demand for commodities.
En esta otra liga puede accederse a una nota de O. Blanchard en el Blog del IMF. En los próximos días se tendrán versiones en el blog en español del FMI.

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