Una interesante reflexión sobre las limitciones de la teoría macroeconómica en la reciente crisis, tal y como ocurrió en la Grandepresión de los treintas del siglo pasado....
A Crisis of Understanding
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....The problem for macroeconomics is that the types of causes mentioned for the current crisis are difficult to systematize. The mathematical models that macroeconomists have may resemble weather models in some respects, but their structural integrity is not guaranteed by anything like a solid, immutable theory.
The most important new book about the origins of the economic crisis, Carmen Reinhart’s and Kenneth Rogoff’s This Time Is Different, is essentially a summary of lessons learned from virtually every financial crisis in every country in recorded history.... But...is almost entirely non-theoretical. It merely documents recurrent patterns. Unfortunately, in 800 years of financial history, there is only one example of a really massive worldwide contraction, namely the Great Depression of the 1930’s. So it is hard to know exactly what to expect in the current contraction based on the Reinhart-Rogoff analysis.
This leaves us trying to use patterns from past, dissimilar crises to try to infer the likely prognosis for the current crisis....
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....The problem for macroeconomics is that the types of causes mentioned for the current crisis are difficult to systematize. The mathematical models that macroeconomists have may resemble weather models in some respects, but their structural integrity is not guaranteed by anything like a solid, immutable theory.
The most important new book about the origins of the economic crisis, Carmen Reinhart’s and Kenneth Rogoff’s This Time Is Different, is essentially a summary of lessons learned from virtually every financial crisis in every country in recorded history.... But...is almost entirely non-theoretical. It merely documents recurrent patterns. Unfortunately, in 800 years of financial history, there is only one example of a really massive worldwide contraction, namely the Great Depression of the 1930’s. So it is hard to know exactly what to expect in the current contraction based on the Reinhart-Rogoff analysis.
This leaves us trying to use patterns from past, dissimilar crises to try to infer the likely prognosis for the current crisis....
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Vale la pena revisar toda la nota
2 comentarios:
Sin duda es muy interesante, y lo más atinado es que nadie sabe a ciencia cierta qué pueda ocurrir, nada es predecible. Se siente un poco de incertidumbre el que los mismos economistas no tienen respuestas a tantas circunstancias.
Ok bueno, si yo mal no recuerdo de acuerdo con lo visto en la clase, los modelos tienen sus limitaciones cierto, y realmente depende del estudioso el grado de complejidad del mismo.
¿Cree usted que sería conveniente, si es que no existe ya algo así, la creación de un cuerpo colegiado de expertos economistas de todo el mundo que se dedique al pronostico de eventos críticos?, Entiendo que a nivel interno (en cada Estado) se hace esto, pero a nivel mundial se hace?... Esto retomando una frase que si mal no recuerdo la dijo Robert Kiyosaki... Es mejor el 1% del esfuerzo de 100% que el 100% del esfuerzo de 1...Creo que para cuestiones como prevenir las crisis bien vale la pena considerarlo no cree.
Saludos
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