martes, 24 de enero de 2012

Blanchard y la Previsión del FMI: el Riesgo de Ajustes Acelerados

En la presentación de las nuevas previsiones económicas mundiales del FMI, Blanchard comparte una serie de reflexiones que bien vale la pena considerar. Explica en este post en el Blog del FMI por qué redujeron sus previsiones, en particular como consecuencia de la crisis europea. Pero si bien señala que es necesario el reajuste fiscal, enfatiza el riesgo de realizarse aceleradamente ya que esto sólo conducirá a una mayor recesión y a un aumento en la deuda como proporción del PIB y no a su reducción. también esto iría acompañado de una contracción en el crédito. Estas son sus recomendaciones:
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First, fiscal consolidation must proceed, but at an appropriate pace. Decreasing debt is a marathon, not a sprint. Going too fast will kill growth, and further derail the recovery. It took more than two decades to successfully decrease debt from its World War II heights. We should expect that it may take as long or longer this time.

Second, a credit crunch must be avoided. Where banks need to increase their capital ratios, they should do it through an increase in capital, rather than a decrease in credit. Recapitalization through public funds will help credit, sustain activity, and may actually improve the fiscal outlook.
Third, and to the extent that they are taking the tough measures they need to take, Euro periphery countriessuch as Italy or Spainmust be able to borrow at low interest rates. As many investors have left the market and are unlikely to return soon, public liquidity provision may be needed. It can be provided in various ways, by the European Central Bank, by the European Union, and by the IMF. Whichever combination is used, the available funds must be large enough to maintain low interest rates and fiscal sustainability.