viernes, 17 de diciembre de 2010

Los Riesgos en Europa y Estados Unidos: Roubini y Johnson

Dos interesantes editoriales sobre los riesgos en Europa y Estados Unidos.... en ambos el tema de deuda es central
A Survival Strategy for the Eurozone
After the Greek and Irish crises and the spread of financial contagion to Portugal, Spain, and possibly even Italy, the eurozone is now in a serious crisis. There are three possible scenarios: “muddle through,” based on the current approach of “lend and pray”; “break-up,” with disorderly debt restructurings and possible exit of weaker members; and “greater integration,” implying some form of fiscal union...
...In the next few months, it will become clear whether European policymakers can compromise and implement reforms that dampen the threat of a eurozone breakup. Either the EU moves in the direction of a more stable equilibrium of closer integration, or the risk of an unstable and disorderly breakup scenario will rise significantly.

The Hopeful Science
Voodoo Economics Revisited
Simon Johnson
What we are seeing is agreement across the aisle on a very dangerous approach to public finance: a continuation and extension of what President George H.W. Bush memorably called “voodoo economics.” Its consequences are about to catch up with America, and the world...
....A year from now, what kind of economy will the US have? Any short-term “fiscal stimulus” effect will have worn off, unemployment will still be high, and there will no doubt be politicians clamoring for more tax cuts. The budget deficit will likely be in the range of 8-10% of GDP, even if growth comes back to some extent. And the bond markets will be much more nervous, meaning higher interest payments, which will widen the deficit further. We might also be looking at a potential ratings downgrade for US government debt – implying the prospect of even higher interest rates.

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