En el Blog Real Times Economics se publica hoy este post, Is Mexico China’s Future?, en donde se hace referencia a un trabajo reciente de Kehoe y Ruhl (ver abajo la referencia). Señalan por ejemplo...
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“Absent continuing reforms,” the economists argue, “Chinese growth is likely to slow down sharply, perhaps leaving China at a level less than Mexico’s” — an outcome that would be a hard slap to the China-as-future crowd.
While Mexico and China seem very different, the economists point out a number of similarities. On the positive side, the two nations focused on foreign trade as a growth engine and they eased central government control of the economy. On the negative side, their financial systems are inefficient, their non-tradable industries (communications, transportation and the like) lack competition; and their rigid labor rules discourage employers from adding full-time workers...
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“Absent continuing reforms,” the economists argue, “Chinese growth is likely to slow down sharply, perhaps leaving China at a level less than Mexico’s” — an outcome that would be a hard slap to the China-as-future crowd.
While Mexico and China seem very different, the economists point out a number of similarities. On the positive side, the two nations focused on foreign trade as a growth engine and they eased central government control of the economy. On the negative side, their financial systems are inefficient, their non-tradable industries (communications, transportation and the like) lack competition; and their rigid labor rules discourage employers from adding full-time workers...
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En el paper están los argumentos, aunque seguramente varios serán ampliamente debatidos. Sin embargo, los párrafos que reproduje arriba me hacen bastante sentido, aunque no estoy seguro en estar de acuerdo con la conclusión del paper...
WHY HAVE ECONOMIC REFORMS IN MEXICO NOT GENERATED GROWTH?
Timothy J. Kehoe and Kim J. Ruhl
Working Paper 16580, NBER
En el paper están los argumentos, aunque seguramente varios serán ampliamente debatidos. Sin embargo, los párrafos que reproduje arriba me hacen bastante sentido, aunque no estoy seguro en estar de acuerdo con la conclusión del paper...
WHY HAVE ECONOMIC REFORMS IN MEXICO NOT GENERATED GROWTH?
Timothy J. Kehoe and Kim J. Ruhl
Working Paper 16580, NBER
1 comentario:
Porque no hay estado de derecho, y porque estamos secuestrados como electorado. Fausto Hernández alguna vez nos dijo que cualquier reforma de las que se discuten es de tercer nivel, y que las de más a fondo nunca se discuten. Estamos secuestrados como electorado porque, para los políticos, somos más bien un obstáculo que hay que saltar y una muchedumbre sucia a la que hay que darle atole con el dedo para que esté contenta.
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