Probabilidad de Una Nueva Recesión en Estados Unidos

Éste es uno de los temas que esta preocupando cada vez más a la economía mundial. Acá una interesante nota en Economic letters de la reserva Federal de San Francisco,

Future Recession Risks
BY TRAVIS J. BERGE AND ÒSCAR JORDÀ

y este es el resúmen (abstract).

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An unstable economic environment has rekindled talk of a double-dip recession. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index provides data for predicting the probability of a recession but is limited by the weight assigned to its indicators and the varying efficacy of those indicators over different time horizons. Statistical experiments with LEI data can mitigate these limitations and suggest that a recessionary relapse is a significant possibility sometime in the next two years.

Esta es la gráfica relevante (hacer click en la gráfica para agrandar) en donde se observa con la línea roja la probabilidfad de una recesión en los próximos uno o dos años, la cual aumenta...

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y esta es la conlcusión

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Any forecast 24 months into the future is very uncertain. At two years out, the odds of recession vary from almost three times more likely than expansion, to expansion being almost five times more likely than recession, depending on which LEI components are used. Nevertheless, LEI forecast trends indicate that the macroeconomic outlook is likely to deteriorate progressively starting sometime next summer, even if the data suggest that a renewed recession is unlikely over the next several months. Of course, economic policy can strongly influence the outcome. The policies that are adopted today could play a decisive role in shaping the pace of growth.