Hace poco el FMI publicó su actualización del WEO. Al respecto, su economista en jefe, O. Blanchard publicó un post en el Blog de este organismo, IMdirect, en donde señala el aumento en la previsiones sobre el crecimiento mundial, pero también hace referencia a cuatro peligros fundamentales en el sentido contrario.
Sin embargo se refiere a dos en particular. El primero es sobre la consolidación fiscal seguida por las economías avanzadas y el riesgo de que se realice de manera acelerada.... el segundo punto se refiere a los flujos de capital a los países emergentes, que si bien redujeron su velocidad en las últimas semanas ante el problema griego, señala que seguramente volverán a aumentar en los próximos meses generando serios retos a las economías receptoras, emergentes. Pero advierte que combatirlos con controles de capital o con acumulación de reservas será poco útil... y ante esto recomienda aprovechar esta situación para que estos países redireccionen su estrategia de un crecimiento exportador hacia un crecimiento apoyado por la demanda interna...... coincido en que éste último punto es central y es el camino que se debería seguir en México....
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Let me finally turn to capital flows. Before problems in Europe came to the fore, capital flows to emerging market countries were steadily increasing. Events in Europe have led to a partial reversal. While fiscal worries in advanced countries have made emerging market countries relatively more appealing, higher risk aversion on the part of investors has led them to repatriate funds, leading to a decrease in capital flows to emerging markets. We expect this reversal to be temporary, and we see the trend as one of continuing strong capital flows to emerging market countries.
These inflows present emerging market countries with a difficult challenge, namely how to best deal with them. Two considerations are important here.
The first is that these flows are largely driven by good fundamentals, and likely to be long lasting: limiting their overall size through controls, or fighting their effect on the exchange rate through reserve accumulation, may prove difficult and eventually self defeating.
The second is that many emerging market countries would benefit from a shift from external to internal demand. This would allow them to maintain growth in the face of lower exports to advanced countries, and to better satisfy domestic needs. To achieve this requires both structural reforms and exchange rate appreciations. In this respect, the decisions by China to boost internal demand and allow for more flexibility of the yuan are welcome
These inflows present emerging market countries with a difficult challenge, namely how to best deal with them. Two considerations are important here.
The first is that these flows are largely driven by good fundamentals, and likely to be long lasting: limiting their overall size through controls, or fighting their effect on the exchange rate through reserve accumulation, may prove difficult and eventually self defeating.
The second is that many emerging market countries would benefit from a shift from external to internal demand. This would allow them to maintain growth in the face of lower exports to advanced countries, and to better satisfy domestic needs. To achieve this requires both structural reforms and exchange rate appreciations. In this respect, the decisions by China to boost internal demand and allow for more flexibility of the yuan are welcome
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