jueves, 3 de enero de 2013

El FMI Dice Que se le Pasó la Mano con Europa

Interesante paper de Blanchard (economista en jefe del FMI) y Leigh en donde reconocen que se les pasó la mano con Europa y que las medidas de consolidación fiscal fueron demasiado fuertes pues los multiplicadores fiscales parecen ser mayores.  (Drirían algo así sobre un país en desarrollo?)

Summary:This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscalconsolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.